A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows that former President Donald Trump will lead President Joe Biden in Iowa by 11 percentage points in a potential 2024 rematch.
Trump defeated Biden by about 8 percentage points in 2020, carrying the state 53% to 45%.
The new survey shows that 51% of likely Iowa voters would vote for Trump in the 2024 election and 40% say they would vote for Biden. 4% say they would not vote for either of the two, and 5% are unsure.
Biden’s approval rating among Iowans is at its lowest ebb since he took office, with Iowans viewing Trump more favorably than they did during his administration, the September poll shows.
Trump’s 2024 potential lead seems to be driven by increasing support among independents.
Biden gets 95% of Democrats’ support — slightly better Trump’s 91% among Republicans. However, independents favor Trump 45% to Biden’s 37%.
“Trump won Iowa convincingly in 2020, and that’s reflected in these data,” pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., said.
The Selzer & Co. poll included 810 Iowa adults, with 658 being likely voters, from Nov. 7 to 10. The questions put forth have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. The questions likely voters were asked have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
Selzer warned that the poll shows an opening for Republican caucus challengers.
“If all you had in this poll was that Trump would defeat Joe Biden by 11 points, it might say everything is locked up,” she said.
The poll showed that 61% of Iowans who identify as Republicans say they are more aligned with the party compared to 26% who maintained that they are more aligned with Trump. The margin of error for this question is plus or minus 6 percentage points.
The party over Trump preference was expressed by a majority of every demographic group, including those in rural areas and evangelical Iowans — two of Trump’s strongholds.
“It opens the door a bit for Iowa,” Selzer added.
Franklin Troy Hommer, a poll respondent from Marion County and political independent, said: “If I had a choice between Gov. (Ron) DeSantis or Donald Trump, that right there would be a hard decision for me. But if you’re telling me that my two choices are Joe Biden or Donald Trump, I’m picking Donald Trump.”
In the hypothetical election, Trump leads with huge margins among evangelical and rural Iowans. Evangelical likely voters are 76% Trump to Biden’s 15%, and 64% Trump among rural likely voters compared to Biden’s 26%.
36-year-old poll respondent Justin Lindsey from Sioux City stated that he’d vote for Trump in a hypothetical rematch with Biden. He stated that Trump implemented policies that worked.
“The reason is: He is more of a businessman than a politician,” he said. “When he got into office, he actually ran the country like a business, and he’s had great success with businesses.”
Trump also leads among likely voters without a college degree, earning 59% support compared to Biden’s 31%.
Biden leads among those who have earned a college degree 53% to Trump’s 38%.
Biden also performed well among likely voters 65 and older — 52% to 41% — and with those who have no religious affiliation — 56% to 36%.
Sources: Des Moines Register